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Flannel 10:29 Fri Feb 23
Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Couldn't see a thread started already for this. I went to one last night at Huntingdon Race Course, it isn't the detailed write up you will be hoping for but at least it is a start! - Enjoy!
Huntingdon Preview Night
Panel included Richard Hoiles (Host), Harry Skelton (Jockey), Matt Tombs (Cheltenham Betting Guide), Matt Brocklebank (Sporting Life), Michael Shinners (SkyBet)
I arrived just as it started and sat right at the back so i couldnt make out who was saying what…….This is a summary though!
Supreme
Take on Getabird - quirky and inexperienced with 2 runs so far.
Paloma blue e/w is an interesting horse
Mengli Khan e/w flat horse and pacey who has drifted out to very backable odds
Arkle
Footpad might not get it his own way up front with St Calvados.
Encouraged by Petit mouchoir if jumping improves and he was better over hurdles against Footpad .....lots of support from the panel on Mouchoir who will come on for the run and was pushed last time
Quick ground helps Sceu royal but not classy enough for an arkle
Champion hurdle
Buveur dair is penalty kick but no value at ⅖ - has turned into a weak race
Faugheen at 6/1 is very good price - spring weather could run a big race and big positivity about his last run (which suprised me)
Panel suggest backing Faugheen at 7/4 without fav .
Chitabella for a place cant be without a chance
MTOYs will be the crowd favourite and think will be backed heavily on the day
Wicklow brave , expecting a big race for high rated hurdler at a price
Mares
Apples jade Banker of the day says everyone and no one can see it even being taken close
Let’s dance has been disappointing this year - take on
Kayf grace if runs in this race is worth E/W.
Ballymore
Samcro it is a machine !!!!Banker - no one objected ... will be much shorter on the day
On the blindside is each way value and likes Cheltenham
Vindication unlikely to run
RSA
Presenting Percy is lay of the week and cant see how it is favourite .
Monalee has strong form following last race and looked gutsy
Shattered love - big price
Al boum photo - under ruby will improve
Elegant escape with a positive mention - tizzards think it will go well
Queen Mother
No one in the room thinks Douvan will even run ( including the audience )
Everyone thinks Altior 1st and Min 2nd.
Big price is God’s Own on good ground and should be backed eachway
No mention from anyone on Politilogue so can only assume everyone thinks it is average
Champion bumper -
Look for a wide winning margin last time out as a useful trend . No one had a mention for anything though
Cross Country
Cause of causes is a banker in the cross country . 3/1 great price said everyone!!
Tiger roll nice sighter and good value and could follow home Cause of Causes
Coral cup - think they mentioned long house haul ? 20/1
William Henry will be favourite and a lot shorter on the day
JLT
Willoughby court will be well backed but no one was really raving about it .
Invitation only, for Mullins worth a look especially under Ruby who will get him pinging
Finians Oscar after wind op is value - doesn’t become a bad horse over night
Ryanair-
UDS doesn’t get the credit he deserves , think punters will take him on though .
They think if Douvan runs it goes here - so worth NRNB.
Fox norton and top notch not good enough
Nap of festival for Harry Skelton is UDS !!! Wow
Rumours are fox norton may be injured
Stayers hurdle -
The new one gets a good mention from everyone
Sam spinner is uncomplicated and will give you a good honest run !
Everyone says it is a wide open race
Harry goes for supersundae
Yanworth has the class but is a dodger
Mares novice
Laurina is gonna take the beating and on a hard day this will be the punters get out
Triumph
Apple shaquira is solid but should be taken on as not tested yet but does get mares allowance .
Mr adjudicator is under rated and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Patrick Mullins and Ruby both think mr adjudicator has a great chance
Farclass is tough and will come on for the trip so could be the value
Albert Bartlett
Chef des obeux with a big mention if ground is soft , if not then Santini on better ground ..... Santini will get backed and worth getting on it now as could be as short as 3/1 on the day .
Grand annual - fane bowers mentioned and ordinary world
County hurdle
Charli Parcs will be a good price and was a top juvenile . Mohayed mentioned by Harry Skelton who has been targeted for this and seems very sweet on him at a decent price
Foxhunter - Harry says Valna Du Thaix
Gold cup - Total recall could be the one that gets backed
Trends suggest definitely red and native river can’t win .
The positive trend suggests class rises above stamina in the gold cup - so might bite and road to respect are positives
Lots of positivity about Might Bite and is the class horse
Harry says Might Bite is too quirky to be confident ..... harry would want to ride Sizing John especially on spring ground and can forgive a poor run last time out .
everyone else says Might Bite and Road to Respect .
Each way bet is Minella Rocco on good ground
Best bet of the week per panel member -
Mohayed each way in county hurdle
Gods own each way in champion chase
Al Boum Photo in RSA each way
Prime venture each way in pertemps
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Replies - Newest Posts First ( Show In Chronological Order)
Northern Sold
12:03 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Nice one Jonny boy
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Flannel
11:05 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Great Stuff Jon - my reading for tonight sorted!
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jonthehammer
9:21 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Chester preview night 6th March
Panel
Stephen Wundke (compare)
Stewart Machin
Oliver Greenall
Henry Daly
Jerry Williams
Martin Chapman
Day 1
Supreme
OG: Can’t see Getabird getting beat. Bit of value in Somerville Boy
SM: Likes Kalashnikov. Connections think he will be better on better ground. The Betfair Hurdle was a battle and will help . Getabird too short.
My Tent or yours was 2nd in this off 150 after dropping back from handicaps but Kalashnikov is 154.
JW: Looking for value. First Flow at 33/1 each way looks ok. Had grade 2 win and improved a lot. Not sure on Getabird left handed. Also likes Kalashnikov
MC: Opposes Getabird. Only short because of Mullins factor. Scarlet Dragon has been laid at big price in recent days.
Arkle
SW: Likes Footpad
HD: Astonished that someone on TV had said Footpads jumping was fragile. Doesn’t agree with that. St Calvados not without a chance.
SM: Agrees with Henry, Footpad been impressive. St Calvados can’t dominate an Arkle. Be surprised if Petit Mouchoir can turn the form around.
JW: Keen on St Calvados who is a quick jumper. Does seem to get away with odd mistake though as he hurdles the fences. Thinks PM can get closer.
Brian power an enigma, good engine but dodgy jumper.
OG: Keen on brain Power after wind op. wants it good. PM probably will win though
Champion Hurdle
OG: Thinks race is similar standard to last year and Buveur D’Air will win.
SM: MTOY always finishes 2nd and will probably do so again. BD is only championship hurdler in country. Faugheen is risky. Second LTO wasn’t good.
HD: Faugheen could have just bounced LTO but form is strange from that race when Supasundae beat him. Faugheen found still be exceptional though so don’t write off.
JW: Back MTOY without BD. Great bet and will place. Supasundae travelled so well v Faugheen LTO.
MC: Elgin EW possibly and MTOY is a definite place Chance. They have had money for Wicklow brave EW
Mares
HD: Apple’s Jade probably too good and wouldn’t back against her. Would love to see her in the Stayers but the Mares Hurdle dilutes some of the other races.
SM: Cant oppose AJ either and also wishes she was going for the Stayers or even the Champion Hurdle. SM has a vote from the floor on whether they would like to see AJ in one of the other races and the overwhelming outcome was Yes.
OG: AJ all the way, likes La Bague Au Roi EW if she goes here.
MC: Confirms Warren Greateaux is still undecided about where La Bague Au Roi runs (from Haydock preview). Benie Dex Dieux unbeaten but has big gaps between runs. AJ to win.
JW: AJ will win, a battler of a horse.
Day 2
Ballymore
OG: Samcro unbeaten, stable very confident and is versatile on the ground.
HD: Samcro expensive purchase (375K). Rock solid.
SM: On the Blind Side no same calibre as Samcro, he is in a different parish to the others.
JW: Next Destination & Duc De Genievres not in same league as Samcro, he is the 2nd coming and has no flaws. In a normal Ballymore OTBS would have a great chance.
MC: Samcro all the way, he is the real deal. OTBS decent form.
RSA
HD: Presenting Percy is a great horse, can win over many distances. He is a natural talent.
SM: Monalee has festival form which is important and his jumping seems fine. PP is a big danger. Lots of horses in the betting with unconfirmed targets which makes it difficult.
OG: Heart is with PP. Monalee’s may have done him good as he thought he was the Dog’s B*llocks before that.
JW: Black Corton great chance, loves Briony Frost. His rating has gone from 131 to 155 which is incredible. Would prefer heavy ground though but has just won him over. Would also be a good horse to back at Aintree. Respects PP.
HD: Paul Nicholls must be astonished by Black Corton as he didn’t rate him at first. He has come from nowhere and a brilliant training performance.
MC: Boys in the office like Mia’s Storm. Said Ballyoptic’s win at Wetherby on 3rd February was rated the best form in this by the Racing Post.
SM: Ballyoptic not quite good enough.
QMCC
HD: This race is the ultimate test, cannot get away with poor jumping.
OG: Altior will up his game and is hard to beat. Only question mark is lack of prep.
SM: Min won’t be good enough. Altior should win. Politilogue won’t be good enough either.
JW: Altior solid, Min not good enough. Puts up Douvan who will either win or be pulled up.
MC: Not even sure that Douvan will run. Altior should win.
HD: Cannot remember one horse who has won a championship race first time out in a season and would be astonished if Douvan won.
Day 3
JLT
SM: Again not sure what is turning up here. Maybe Modus EW if the market leaders go elsewhere. Has Cheltenham form over Hurdles.
JW: Also likes Modus. Finian’s Oscar form has gone t*ts up but he does travel well.
HD: If ground is quite soft Terrefort can go well.
OG: Benatar is a big price, has beaten FO and won 3 times this season but this is a weak renewal.
MC: Again not sure what will run here. Invitation Only for Mullins maybe. Modus wants it soft.
Barry Geraghty has said Modus has improved for a fence.
Ryanair
OG: UDS is a decent price, bigger than he has been for races round here in the past. Top Notch is a big threat.
SM: Waiting Patiently unlikely to run and has every right to miss the festival for Aintree. Top Notch value bet and maybe wasn’t fit LTO.
JW: Sporting bet on Cue Card EW. Also says WP won’t run. Thinks UDS will empty out up the hill.
HD: CC deserves his place in the line-up and on Ascot form could win it.
MC: CC would be a popular winner and agrees with Jerry re: UDS. Balko Des Flos nibbled at in market.
Stayers Hurdle
JW: Likes Supasundae, Sam Spinner winning would be a good story. Unowhatimeanharry not without a chance.
OG: Sam Spinner would be a lot shorter if with a top trainer. Good price.
SM: Yanworth his choice. Only beaten twice over Hurdles. Didn’t work going over fences and least exposed over this trip.
HD: The New One would also be a popular winner for different reasons to SS. Been a top class horse. Worries about Joe Colliver’s experience on Sam Spinner as it is difficult to make all in a championship race.
MC: Agrees with Oliver that SS is overpriced. Says owner hasn’t backed Penhill yet. EW angle for him is L’Ami Serge. Yanworth probably the class horse in the field and probably his main choice.
Day 4
Triumph Hurdle
JW: 2002 was last Mullins win in this. Likes Apples Shakira and is on at 25s. Redicean jumped well last weekend and is a threat.
OG: Likes Redicean, he has been impressive. Alan King has good record in this. Thinks he will stay as won over 1m 6f on the flat. King thinks he is as good as Katchit.
SM: No strong opinion but probably would go Redicean the same as Oliver. Hard to quantify the form of Stormy Ireland’s where he got run of the race.
HD: Not many horses who do well in this go on to be superstars. It is a tough race for 4 year olds. Apples Shakira is worthy favourite.
MC: Thinks Redicean will go off favourite due to the Alan King factor.
Gold Cup
JW: Might Bite quirky but talented and has good form in the book. Thinks Native River will end up favourite on the day. Improved this year but would prefer good ground.
SM: Also thinks NR will go off favourite as well and will finish in the frame. Minella Rocco trained especially for this so ignore the form. Nicky Henderson has said that he can’t guarantee Might Bite will stay the trip so couldn’t back him if the trainer isn’t confident.
MC: Very few horses that run well in this in previous years come back and do the same, it takes a lot out of them. Road to Respect has gone under the radar a bit. Djakadam massive for an EW play but won’t win.
HD: Killultagh Vic run over hurdles wouldn’t put him off. Native River with Dickie Johnson up is a formidable partnership. Surprised Mullins is running Total Recall here as sees him as a National horse so Mullins must think he has a shout.
SM: The best stayer normally wins and not necessarily the best horse. Not convinced about Our Duke’s form.
OG: Definitely Red wants it soft and is his pick.
Foxhunters
SM: Sent Jonathan Neesom a text and he told him to say Volnay de Thaix as it would make him sound savvy.
OG: Shotavodka EW at a big price.
HD: Since the rule change this has become difficult to win. Virak has best form this year and has beaten Shotavodka. A huge price.
JW: Likes Wonderful Charm on good ground but a little quirky.
MC: Nicholls has said Wonderful Charm is his best bet of meeting.
Handicaps
SM: General Principle for Elliot at massive prices but still entered in 3 races (Ultima (doesn’t think he will get in), Browns Advisory & Kim Muir). He could be aimed at the Irish National though so may not run. Also likes Esprit De Somoza in the Fed Winter.
OG: According to Tom Messenger assistant trainer with Skelton, Nube Negra is going to win the Fred Winter. They are convinced.
HD: Hopes Patricks Park gets in the Browns Advisory as has a good chance. Then reeled off a stat that Nick Henderson had only 93 winners in handicap chases between 2007 & 2017, only 9.3 per year.
JW: Very keen on Who Dares Wins for the Pertemps. Had injury problems but all clear now. He also gave a good word for Blackbow in the Bumper who is rated very highly. Says he wont be backing any Venetia, Hobbs or Jonjo horses as stables out of form.
MC: Told the story from previous night about Glenloe being entered at Market Rasen just to see what the handicap mark would be but didn’t run. Others backed are Mall Dini, Any Second Now, De Plotting Shed and Thomas Campbell. Also some money in the Fred Winter for Lisp. His tip was Tiger Roll in the Cross Country.
SW: Liked Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima and Max Dynamite in either the Coral or the County.
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jonthehammer
9:20 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Racing Post Preview
PK - Paul Kealy
GL - Gavin Lynch
PM - Patrick Mullins
RF - Richard Forristal
TM - Thom Malone
NM - Nicola McGeady
Supreme
PM - Very excited about Getabird. Was very impressive lto, jumped brilliant, and professionally.
PK - Not sure what is wrong with Kalashnikov. Found loads, and can't see him out of the frame.
RF - Taking Getabird on. Question about going l/h. Last 6 winners run at least 4 times. Thinks ND should be in this. Huge engine.
GL - On Getabird, and will be on again on the day if he goes 9/4 5/2. People presume he's slow, has gears. Summerville Boy best e/w.
Arkle
PM - Footpad our nap of the festival. Just under top class as a hurdler, and not sure PM jumps well enough. SC a worry, but Footpad has form in the book.
PK - Can't knock Footpad on anything done over fences, but thinks PM will be a better horse than he was LTO. Thinks SC wants soft ground, even though trainer says not a worry.
NM - Footpad started to drift in the week, evens to 15/8, and others started to shorten, but then everyone said nothign wrong, nothing changed. People looking at ground she thinks. Likes SC.
GL - Against BP, jumps to right, poor at chelts x2. Can't have SC unless soft. Thinks FP held up, behind. Worried about PM jumping. With Footpad, always an advantage to have Ruby.
RF - With Footpad, and thinks PM's run was outstanding last time. Not sure he'll turn it around. Hard to oppose Footpad. Can't remember seeing a hurdler improve to much for going over a fence. If it wasn't for the drift wouldn't even think about getting it beat.
PM - Wasn't quick enough for CH over 2, but the way he jumps fences makes up ground, and makes him quick enough for 2m chase.
Champion Hurdle
PM - Faugheen been fine all year, which is why we are scratching our heads. We know he still has ability, after Morgiana. Changed a few things at home, and hoping that will spark him up a bit, as well as Cheltenham. Yorkhill schooled very well over hurdles at Curragh, so have option of here, or Ryanair.
RF - Where would you run him?
GL - CH
RF - Ryanair
NM - Ryanair
PK - On his runs this year doesn't matter
We know ability is there, but thinks that Yorkhill is in better form than all year. Wicklow Brave, better ground, better he'll run. Melon never went a yard with the hood, thinks he is great value at 10/1, and taking hood off at Cheltenham.
PK - I always want to oppose short prices, even if only small bets. Only chink for BD is that he might have forgotten how to race. Shaken up to beat JC, because almost looked like forgotten what to do. Won a good CH, but has backed Wicklow Brave, in normal and w/o markets. Thinks he is very talented, and asks PM if he's riding. PM laughs and says he would love to ride WB.
RF - Thinks 3m was a test first time out for Yorkhill, thinks he'll pick up pieces in whatever race he runs in. BD beat a proper yardstick in MTOY, and wouldn't worry about last day. Can't see Faugheen winning now.
GL - Yorkhill, Faugheen,, and BD only horses who have ability to win race, and two of them you can't have. BD may have forgotten how to race, but can't look past BD.
All say how good a horse MTOY is, and PM says doesn't get credit he's deserves.
Mares Hurdle
Can AJ be beaten?
PK - Backed La Bague for this and Stayers. Thinks she'll prob end up here because Stayers looking tough, and one to beat here.
PM - BDD prob go here, very exciting over fences, but schooled well over hurdles. LTO ran very keen, and did well to win. AJ fantastic. VVM in great form, but going without a prep. Won't give her as much rope this time, and hope that helps.
NM - Anything but Apples Jade please
RF - Non event AJ wins. Beat Supasundae, and SS fave for Stayers. 4/6 is almost value. Verdana Blue value at 20/1 a place if she runs.
GL - AJ great, but thinks BDD might chase her home, if you can get 5/2 3/1 w/o value.
Others
PK - Ultima - Coo Star Sivola, Close Bros - Barney Dwan, NH Chase - No Comment
PM - Might ride Rathvinden in the NH Chase
RF - NH Chase - Jury Duty, Ultima - American & Le Rocher
GL - NH Chase - Rathvinden, Close Bros - Any Second Now
Neptune
PK - Samcro prob is good thing, but I don't back short priced faves. Take him on with Black Op. Thinks he ran a nice race against Santini.
PM - Next Destination most likely to go here, but entered everywhere. ND form not as good as Samcro, but know he handles Cheltenham, and jumps very well.
NM - This is the one we'd probably want to lay, of the hype horses.
RF - Fantastic horse, but I'm a ND fan, and hope he doesn't run in the AB. Look at what he beat the last day, beat CS, Jetz, BBB, DDG. Thinks ND take some stopping here or Supreme.
PK - 4 of last 7 faves been beaten in this race.
GL - Hard to see Samcro beaten. Against OTBS, hill is a worry, NH even said. ND and Samcro 1-2. Would like Samcro in Supreme.
TM - Anything at a big price?
PK - Black Op thinks happier on better ground. NH talks about Santini as a GC horse.
PM - Not sure where DDG goes, but thinks 14/1 good price and entitled to improve.
RSA
NM - PP my bet of the week
RF - Take on PP not ideal prep, beaten at top level. For a horse to win a G1 after fall Monalee had was some going. Bad fall, and a kicking, won well last day, one for him.
GL - Thinks Davy is a better judge than he is.
PK - Likes PP, didn't like the prep. 1/2 thinks Monalee is ending up in the JLT, race falling apart. Not sure what's wrong with Black Corton, won Reynoldstown easily, and if he started his career in November, would be shorter. Could be a fluke, but jumps well, and always finds.
PM - Al Boum Photo & IO, will be split. One going JLT. Gave Monalee an easy lead, and that's why race finished like it did. Thinks set up for Monalee, and thinks he's more of a JLT horse. Over 3m, thinks it might be like AB last year. Not sure PP race was hard, hacked around, and PP could have won. DR gave him sympathetic ride. Al Boum Photo more room for improvement, than IO.
QMCC
TM - Altior?
PK - Yeah, most likely. Got to prove it, after first run out from break. Should be good enough, and wouldn't surprise him if Min got closer. Way they talk about Altior, he could be another Sprinter.
PM - Min better chaser, but not sure he'd turn it around with Altior, as he doesn't look any worse over fences. Min had better prep, but Altior looked good. Douvan is the one. Stepping him up day by day, and if he pleases them in a couple important bits of work this week will go. Thinks he's better than Altior. Holly is delighted with him, going without a run. Unenviable task, but if any horse can, Douvan could.
NM - Not much support for Douvan, and Altior return was a dream. Competitive race. Politologue solid e/w. If Min or Douvan show up, it's a race.
RF - Can't see Douvan coming back FTO. Quevega did it in the mares, but this isn't the mares.
PM - We managed it with Arctic Fire
RF - That's' not Altior, if you do this, greatest training performance ever. Altior impossible to oppose, not concerned about bounce. Min improving horse, but it's Altior.
GL - Altior should be 180 after Cheltenham, thinks he's underrated. Interesting to see who Ruby rides. Ricci said if Ruby doesn't ride Douvan, why we running him? Shocked if Altior beat.
Bumper
PM - I usually listen to Willie for my ride in the bumper, but I have more of a say than other races.
Blackbow best performance so far. Hollowgraphic he loves. .Ran great race last year as a 4yo, and won well lto. Tornado Flyer will improve for the run. Carefully Selected surprise package, and will be a strong stayer who will settle. No problem with atmosphere, in his opinion.
GL - Blackbow, thinks Rhinestone the danger. Last day was shortly after Irish CH, and quicker than Supasundae with same weight.
RF - Blackbow, form great, and sire is good. Hollowgraphic not for him as a bumper, but long term prospect. Know your score as an outsider at big price. Bought for 400k for pipe, and 33/1 overpriced.
NM - Nick Gifford's horse positive, but can't separate Hollow & Blackbow
PK - Doesn't have a big bet in this. Blackbow great rating, but sneaky feeling Rhinestone might turn it around.
PM - Giggs horse entered, not sure if it runs.
Weds Handicaps
GL - Can't wait to see DR on Mitchouka in FW and watching him ride it. Tiger Roll & Cause of Causes in Cross Country.
RF - Malaya in Fred Winter & Jers Girl in Coral Cup if she runs.
PM - Deal D'estruval surprised how well he ran over 2, appreciate step up.
NM - Act of Valour maybe in FW seen some bets for
PK - Le Breuil & Springtown Lake Coral Cup & Act of Valour in Fred Winter off 136 - PN won it 3/7
JLT
TM - What's going to run biggest problem
PM - IO or ABP - Possibly IO as ABP looked like staying on better last day.
RF - Looks like a consolation race, and Modus appeals. 2nd in Champ Bumper, and 2nd in CC behind Supasundae. 7/1 a fair price.
PK - FO horse with most talent, but not prep you want. No mean feat to give Benatar 7lbs, and if he can return to that, should go close. Backed Benatar, too. If Monalee turns up, wins.
GL - Finians most talent, but jumping. Modus run 4x and won 3/4 in small fields at odds on. IO right favourite, and would fancy Monalee if it showed up. Poorest of the 3 chases. Maybe IO.
Ryanair
TM - Un De Sceaux great.
PM - Loves the game. 2x Sprinter beat him he got back up for 2nd. Iron Horse. Ran away with Ruby in middle of race, and some of those leaps. Was extraordinary last year. Not a big horse, but attacks fences. More cut the better. Never been forgiven for being beaten by Sprinter, but won an Arkle & Ryanair.
PK - Loves Cue Card, wil have to back him, but can't see him winning. Sometimes you get on the wrong side of a horse, and stay there. That's me with UDS. Only thing is, the horses in behind last year are 1/22 since. Will take him on with BDF, with hope, more than anything. Top Notch could come back, but not sure if he's 'Top Notch'
GL - Agrees with PM that UDS doesn't get the respect he deserves. Fantastic horse. Pity we won't see Waiting Patiently, and thinks BDF be better with good ground.
RF - UDS underappreciated. Great battle to get back for 2nd against Sprinter. Can't see him beaten, and thinks price is value. Would love to see WP here, for the spectacle.
PM - 8/1 NRNB big price for Yorkhill, and the rail on his inside helps like Ruby says. Easier to ride at Cheltenham.
Mares Novice Hurdle
TM - Laurina
PM - She's like Let's Dance, but taller. In fantastic form, we think the world of her. If ground a little softer it will suit. Maria's Benefit has experience. What Laurina did at Fairyhouse looked exceptional.
PK - Handicapper rated Maria's Benefit 152, not sure the prices should be so wide apart. Prices are wrong with that big a diff. But MB had a setback.
GL - MB only missed a week’s work, should be ok.
RF - Laurina's form strong. If she's as good as they saying, she won't be beaten.
Stayers Hurdle
TM - Supasundae favourite here, are you with him?
PK - Didn't finish strongest lto, so you wonder. Backed La Bague a few weeks ago, but don't think running here now. Rumours about Bloom trying to get a box for the Thursday. If Penhill returns to that form.
PM - Penhill back in full training, and as fit as they can have him. Holly said he is her nap of the festival. Won so well last year, and Monalee 2nd. Know he handles track/trip, lots experience. Schooled well the other day. Not ideal, but have to play the cards how they're dealt. Wide open race. Bacardys overpriced, schooled him and he's slick over hurdles, even after going chasing. Race he won in Punchestown very good.
RF - Supasundae worthy favourite, and thinks Yanworth prob be favourite if he hadn't gone chasing. Thinks Supasundae is lairy, and running in ICH was right. Sam Spinner is vulnerable. Robbie can ride a race on SS, but needs to stay, thinks he will.
Talking about Apples beating SS, and PM thinks that AJ beat SS easier than it looked.
GL - Laying Sam Spinner, Supasundae 0/2 at the trip. Yanworth or Penhill for him. Penhill pushed wide in AB and still won.
PK - Coming round to Penhill. Thinks UKWIMH could be a silly price, but he's another 10 year old, and hasn't been as good this year.
Thursday Handicaps
GL - Mall Dini - KM Squoauteur doesn't jump well enough. Brown Advisory - Kings Socks 2nd to Footpad in a G1
RF - Mall Dini - KM & Sort It Out - Pertemps
PK - Who Dares Wins - Pertemps. Brown Advisory - Mister Whittaker better on good ground
PM - Nothing in KM or Pertemps. Pleasant Company in Brown Adv, might go to National. Patricks Park up 10lbs, and will run where he can get in.
Triumph Hurdle
PM - This race has changed, French breds have changed it. Lots of proper NH bred horses. Mr Adjudicator has best form. Good race, and told time was good, w/e that means. Farclas was 2nd to Espoir when he was on form. Jumped a bit sticky early, but better with hood off. Stormy Ireland is pandoras box, hopes timeform right. Very small, and doesn't do as much at home. Fabulous jumper, and the plan wasn't that in Fairyhouse, but let her roll on. Wasn't 100% for Leopardstown, train her better at home. Great form now. Saldier is a chasing horse for future, and very good flat form. Can't wait to see him over a fence.
NM - Apples Shakira unbeaten in 4, and NH singing her praises. Impressed with Redicean.
PK - AS been favourite, but not sure it will like it if ground turns up fast. Worried about Redicean, after first 2. Laid him everything last time, and watched him run like that. Farclas getting buried will help him, he thinks. Battled when they went last few furlongs. Both good, but fancies Farclas on better ground.
RF - Take on AS, looks like wants soft, but agrees with PK. Won't know which is best form. Redicean looked most impressive, and last time at Kempton looked vg. No bet, but Redicean the one.
GL - Very hard race, lots unbeaten. Redicean looked like diff horse lto. AS, on ground doesn't want better, NH thinks she does. Stormy prob make running, very fast race. AS if she's close enough will def finish up hill.
Talk about Stormy winning time being so good. RF says take it with pinch of salt, and GL agrees, but says it was very good.
Albert Bartlett
PM - Fabulous Saga obvious one, and race has strong profile for horses with experience, which he has. Forgive last run, too bad to be true. DDG fascinating horse, but same owner as FS. Next Destination was quite keen the last day, and you need to settle. Ballyward is there, would race behind the bridle, not enough experience maybe. Real Steel another one, who thinks better going over a trip. PT said same thing after he won over 2m.
PK - Santini only 3 runs, need exp. Doesn't ruin horses, but inexp get found out. 62 non finishers. For that reason Calett Mad, who he can't believe is 25/1 still. Going well in NH Chase before his 5th birthday. Bolted up in Pertemps trial. Nick Luck said NTD told him Calett Mad one horse that is thriving.
RF - Chef Des Obeaux he likes, and the last time a winner of this hadn't run over 3m was Bobs Worth. CDO ticks box, out and out stayer.
GL - CDO interesting if it comes up soft. Another Haydock merchant. If ground is good fancy Santini. DDG can't see him staying if you watch end of race with ND. Soft ground CDO or Chriss Dream.
Gold Cup
RF - In Might Bite camp, and Sizing John. Thinks it's between those 2. Great run destroying Djakadam, and out too quick lto. Might Bite is the up and coming horse. To do what he did in RSA, and still get up the hill after what he did. NDB knows what's coming, and if it wasn't for that quirk he'd be shorter. NR shouldn't be good enough. Our Duke improving but still a way. KV fallen or nearly fallen twice.
PM - SJ overpriced. KV had the injury, but has an engine, and it's an ask with his jumping. Inexperienced, and a race like this. Total Recall, thinks his form with Whisper puts him a way behind, but he's improving. Djakadam is overpriced, he thinks. Race always throws up horses that place year after year. Disappointed in Leopardstown, maybe ride him diff.
PK - Wide open. MB might be most talented, but wandered around 3/4 times at Cheltenham. SJ prob the best if he comes back. Likes young improving profile, and Road To Respect has that. Bachasson at a massive price, could be very talented. Skipped round AB, but didn't get home as a 5yo. Big ask, but big price.
PM - Bachasson improved a lot, but has heart and scope to jump. He's a young protential improver.
GL - Small e/w on Bachasson @ 50/1. Might Bite is actually 9, and should be 7/7 without Kempton. New Course is 50yards further in, so won't know about gate. NDB went too soon in KG, kicking before the bend. Idles a lot. Sizing John massive chance. Can't believe Native River is 5/1, will place lay him. Needs soft ground.
PK - Road to Respect
PM - Might Bite
NM - Our Duke
RF - Might Bite
GL - Sizing John
Friday Handicaps
GL - Hunters Call in the County Hurdle. Burning Ambition for Foxhunters 5/7 and young improver. Jamie Codd riding.
RF - Burning Ambition agreed. County Hurdle - Burbank & Patricks Park in Grand Annual.
PM - Carter McKay & Sandsend in M.Pipe.
PK - Ivanovich Gorbatov in County and thinks Hunters Call form looks fantastic. Deal D'Estruval & Des Bieffes with James Bowen in M. Pipe. Diego Du Charmil in the Grand Annual
PM - Whiskey Sour is in Supreme/County couldn't enter him in eurovision. Wants good ground.
'Very Willie Answer' from panel.
Charity Bets
PK - Coo Star Sivola in Ultima
PM - Footpad in Arkle
GL - Blackbow in Bumper
RF - Know The Score in Bumper
NM - Saint Calvados in Arkle
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jonthehammer
9:19 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
|
Cheltenham 2018 Preview by Scott Ruderham
Day 1
Supreme
Getabird too short. Form of what he has beaten nothing special. Looks like a soft action horse and won’t be to same affect going left handed.
Kalashnikov will have his supporters. Great ride given and a good performance in the Betfair hurdle.
Mengli Khan may improve for the better ground and has each way claims.
Claimantakinforgan has done not a lot wrong in his career. His last run at Musselburgh was in ground that didn’t suit. He has festival form and at 14/1 is a good each way bet.
Lay Getabird, Claimantakinforgan the bet e/w
Arkle
Race getting easier now with no Sceau Royal. Brain Power has failed to complete 2 of his 3 chase starts and cannot be on my mind. Petit Mouchoir given a sensible ride last time after injury, and should improve for the run. Saint Calvados and Footpad to fight out the finish. Both jump very well and will appreciate softer side of good ground. Footpad for me just to win.
Champion Hurdle
Nothing beats Buveur D’Air. My Tent Or Yours will place again, and in a weak race Faugheen should place again, even if below his once imperious best. Verdana Blue and John Constable not good enough. Wicklow brave not certain to start same time as others and may forfeit ground.
4 Miler
No Comment receives timely booking of Derek O’Connor, sure to attract supporters. Jury Duty has the best Irish form in the book along with Shattered Love. Jury Duty placed in last year’s Pertemps, and jumps well. The bet of the race for me.
Mares
Nothing beats Apples Jade. Penalty Kick. Benie Des Dieux an each way selection that will be popular. Vroum Vroum Mag will prove popular on the day, but I doubt if she retains her once top class ability to win.
Day 2
Ballymore
Samcro has all the hype and has lived up to it so far. Next Destination may run here, or the Albert Bartlett. On The Blind Side has been impressive and won at Cheltenham already. Both horses must be respected.
Vinndication is a dark horse, and Kim Bailey has not hidden his excitement in the horse. He is the each way play of the race along with Black Op.
Samcro is the most obvious winner, but On The Blind Side can finish second.
RSA
Monalee if he runs here will be the favourite. He jumps well from the front and connections have pondered running in the JLT. Along with Presenting Percy, both have been tipped as future Gold Cup horses. Al Boum Photo is three times the price and finished a close 2nd to Monalee last time. If he runs, the improvement will come and is the bet of the race for me each way.
QMCC
The wellbeing of Douvan is still unknown. If he turns up and is at his peak he will give Altior his toughest ever race. Min’s trip is 2 miles, tends to run with the choke out. He may be the best of the Irish this year, but I doubt he’s good enough to beat Altior.
Altior wins if he turns up in the same form as he did against Politilogue. Special Tiara will need good ground to be seen at his best.
X-Country
Cause of Causes will go off fav. This will be the first festival I will be against him. Tiger Roll has his public ‘schooling session’ around the course at the December meeting. Same profile to Cause of Causes. Prominent 2 miler hurdler progressed to a NH Chase winner, and being blatantly aimed at this race. Has more class than Cause of Causes. Auvergnat can run in to a place and Kingswell Theatre also place claims.
Bumper
A lot of unknown quantities and some apparent chances. Not a race I like to get stuck in to, but Didtheyleaveuoutto is the one who has impressed me most this year. Sectionals in his previous run read well. He will be there at the end.
Day 3
JLT
If Monalee shows up here, he wins. Terrefort looks like taking his chance in the race. If the ground is on the soft side, he poses good value at 9/1.
Finian’s Oscar has the ability, but you have to worry about his campaign and if he still has the love of racing in his blood. Modus is not good enough in my opinion. Invitation Only can fill the places, but willing to lay him for a win.
Terrefort to win and Benatar another to consider for a place.
Ryanair
Un De Sceaux is many peoples odds against banker of the meeting. He always runs his race and will play the catch me if you can tactics once again.
Top Notch disappointed last time and is not on my mind. Cue Card ran a blinder behind Waiting Patiently who may not run. 12 year olds rarely win Grade Ones so cannot have him.
The one I want on side is Balko De Flos. A Galway Plate winner, ran a cracker behind Road to Respect in the Grade 1 in Ireland at Xmas. 8/1 is a big price and is a better horse than Sub Lieutenant who finished 2nd by a length ¾ last year.
Balko Des Flos to win. Cue Card to run a place.
Stayers Hurdle
Supasundae, along with Getabird is the lay of the meeting. Could not beat Yanworth over 3m on good ground at Aintree and beat Faugheen over 2m on heavy. He will not be able to keep up with Sam Spinner. Vast improver, stays, jumps well and will gallop every inch to the line. Could do a Cole Harden and beat them all off in the same gear.
The New One not good enough and wont place.
Unowhatimeanharry has had a good break and cannot be discounted for a place.
Sam Spinner to win
Mares Novice – Laurina is the banker of the Mullins team and will be a certainty here for many punters. Marias Benefit and Cap Soleil the obvious place contenders .
Day 4
Triumph
One of the races of the festival. Apples Shakira has done nothing wrong, and keeps winning. Her course experience is a big plus and the larger field and gallop should help her be seen at best effect. She is the right favourite.
Redicean has been impressive and his jumping improved at Kempton in the Adonis. He has a serious engine and I prefer him to get closest to Apples Shakira just ahead of We Have A Dream.
Farclas will reverse form with Mr Adjudicator and will be In the frame.
Albert Bartlett
Next Destination may run here now that Cracking Smart is a non-runner. Ran well in the bumper last year and has done nothing wrong over hurdles this term.
Santini may go off very short if Black Op runs a big race in the Ballymore. Not much between them on trials day, and the ground that day was against Santini. Impressed with his attitude and a future star chaser.
Chef Des Obeaux will run in to a place.
Gold Cup
Negative about Might Bite is his behaviour in his last 2 runs at Cheltenham. Keeps winning but his form is not the strongest in the book. Double Shuffle half a length in the King George and a couple of short distance wins against Whisper do not scream Gold Cup winner. Native River will go off from the front and put Might Bite out of his comfort zone. Lay for me.
Road to Respect has done nothing wrong. Keeps winning and has festival form. He will travel well and his jumping is solid. Our Duke and Killultagh Vic both need to sort our jumping issues. If they do, they can run in to a place.
Road to Respect to win and Native River to place.
Foxhunters – Open looking race. Foxrock hates Cheltenham and is a lay. Burning Ambition the new kid on the block and will go off fav.
Wonderful Charm the one to beat.
Best Bests of Meeting:
Martin Pipe – Dortmund Park 14/1
Brown Advisory Plate - The Storyteller 12/1
X-Country – Tiger Roll 6/1
RSA – Al Boum Photo e/w 10/1
Mares Novice – Laurina 11/10
Lay – Might Bite 4/1
Lay – Getabird 13/8
Gordon Elliott stable tour
Apples Jade-
She goes for the Mares’ Hurdle and I couldn’t be happier with her. She’ll do one more bit of work tomorrow morning and that’ll be her pretty much ready to go. She’s been easier to train this season. She just seems more mature and strong and her form on the track seems better than ever. I don’t think going there fresh will be a problem for her.
Bless the wings:
Trainer Says:
He will run in the cross-country chase and Davy Russell will ride him.
Blow by blow:
He’ll go for the Martin Pipe. He won well last time in first-time blinkers and that was probably the first time he’s shown his true form since he won the Grade 1 bumper at Punchestown. I’d say a combination of the less testing ground and blinkers were a help to him.
Cause of causes;
Trainer Says:
He goes to the cross-country race. It looks a good opportunity for him. He’s in very good form at home and we couldn’t be happier with him. He doesn’t do anything fancy at home, but he always seems to come alive at Cheltenham. Jamie Codd will ride him.
De plotting shed:
He goes for the novices’ handicap chase and probably looks like he’s well enough handicapped. I’d like to think the longer trip and better ground will help him. With a bit of luck, he won’t be far away.
Dounikos:
He goes for the RSA Chase. It’s looks a competitive renewal, but he jumps, stays and gallops and that’s what you need to win an RSA. I think stepping up to the RSA trip will be the making of him.
Fagan:
He’ll run in the National Hunt Chase. He hasn’t been an easy horse to train, but if you go back to his Albert Bartlett form he’d have a fair chance in this and he has a good record when fresh. He’ll be ridden by Barry O’Neill.
Farclas:
He’s in good form and will run in the Triumph Hurdle. We’re going to put a tongue tie on him for the first time there. He doesn’t have a breathing problem, but I think it might help him a bit. I think he’s improving with every run and while he’ll need to improve again, I don’t think there’s any more than a good jump between the best of the Irish juvenile hurdlers. Jack Kennedy will ride him.
Felix Desjy:
He runs in the Champion Bumper. I think he’s a good horse and Davy Russell will ride him. I didn’t think I needed to do too much more with him and wasn’t sure whether to send him here, but the lads gave me the nod to send one over for it and I thought he was the best candidate.
Flawless escape:
He’ll run in the Martin Pipe. I thought he ran very well in his first handicap at Leopardstown and he ticks a lot of the boxes for this race. We have a few riders booked already and we’re likely to have four runners in the race, but the specifics of who rides what won’t be sorted out until closer to the time.
Glenloe:
He goes for the Pertemps Final. It’s a competitive race, but he’s in very good form. The one worry would be if it came up a bit quick, but it looks like there’s no real chance of that happening.
Jury Duty:
He goes for the National Hunt Chase and Jamie Codd will ride. He stays three miles, but four miles will be a question he has to answer on the day. He has a good bit of class, so if he gets home he must have a fair chance.
Mengli Khan:
He goes for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the drier the ground, the better his chance. It’s probably hard to see him reversing form with Getabird, but he’s in very good form. I’m just not sure he gave his running at Punchestown last time, as the third and fourth horses were a bit closer to him than I expected.
Mitchouka:
He goes for the Fred Winter and is really well. I can see him travelling very well, but whether he gets up the hill is the question I have. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my gut feeling.
Monbeg notorious:
He won’t travel and will wait for the Irish Grand National.
Mossback:
He’ll run in the National Hunt Chase and Lisa O’Neill will ride him.
Outlander:
He’ll take his chance in the Gold Cup and it looks an open race. He had surgery for a kissing spine before he started back this season and I’ve been very happy with his performances this season. He ran bad in the race last season, but his jumping was terrible on the day and that was the case again at Punchestown after that, so maybe the issue with his back was to blame.
Samcro:
He goes for the Ballymore. If it came up really heavy, you never know, but the Ballymore is very much the plan as of now. I’d imagine we’ll give him a straightforward, jump him off in fourth or fifth and ride him like the best horse in the race.
Shattered love:
She goes for the JLT. She jumps and gallops and I thought this might be a weaker option than the RSA for her. She’s nice and straightforward, so we can jump her off good and handy there and make use of her jumping and stamina. She’d had a few runs leading up to Christmas, so we decided to train her for here after that rather than give her a run in between. Another part of that is that I want to have some of these horses still in top form for the spring festivals in Ireland too. The last couple of seasons we’ve found ourselves running a bit low on ammunition for those meetings, so we think giving some of them an easier time in the middle part of the season might pay off later.
Sire du berlais:
He’ll go for the Martin Pipe and is on good form. He’ll galloped through the line very well last time and I really liked his run.
Squouateur:
He’ll run in the Kim Muir and Jamie Codd will ride him. Based on his run in the Paddy Power he has a good chance and even looking at his run at Cheltenham last year up until he fell would give you in encouragement.
Tiger roll:
He goes for the cross country and Keith Donoghue will ride him. He had a kissing spine surgery before he came back this season and he’s another that seems to come alive at Cheltenham. We brought him over to school over these obstacles since his last run and I was delighted with him over there. We don’t like to leave any stone unturned if we can at all and that is why we do things like that. He’s absolutely flying at home and I think he’ll run very well.
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jonthehammer
9:19 Fri Mar 9
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
|
Preview Night 2
Paul Nicholls, Davy Russell and Bryony Frost
DAY 1
Supreme Novices Chase
Obviously my selection was CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN... Paul Nicholls didn't have many opinions on the race but we were both of the thought that KLASHNIKOV didn't have much of a chance on livelier ground and after such a hard race at Newbury. We also both thought that GETABIRD was too short for a horse that until last month wasn't even considered a Supreme runner..
Arkle
PETIT MOUCHOIR was the most popular horse. Paul Nicholls didn't particularly agree that Footpad would go to the JLT but at the same time thought that PETIT MOUCHOIR had the better chance to win on all known form. He felt the ground would be too fast for SAINT CALVADOS and that SCEAU ROYAL didn't have much of a chance on what he's achieved to date.
Ultima Handicap Chase
This race wasn't covered but the Owner of SINGLEFARMPAYMENT was in the audience. I spoke to him after and he confirmed that the horse was once again being sent for a crack at the race having been beaten on a photo last time out. He's had a stop start campaign and had a few issue's but is in cracking form right now.
Champion Hurdle
BUVEUR D'AIR was considered by all three of us to be the banker of the meeting. As long as he jumps he'll be all but impossible to beat.
Mares Hurdle
Again all three consider APPLES JADE to be incredibly hard to beat.
4m Chase
Race wasn't discussed but I put forward a case to why DOUNIKOS should run a good race if he can get home.
Close Brothers Novice Chase
Paul has MOVEWITHTHETIMES entered in this and one other race. He feels whichever one he runs in, this the more likely, he would have a cracking each way chance.
DAY 2
Ballymore Novices Chase
The race wasn't really discussed but SAMCRO is without a doubt the horse to beat.
RSA
I thought PRESENTING PERCY would be hard to beat and is the pick of Davy Russell who has the choice of the two market leaders. Paul and Bryony are expecting BLACK CORTON to be bang in contention too and a good each way bet.
Coral Cup
Paul feels that if TOPOFTHEGAME can stay sound and take his place he'd have a great chance. He's a horse that Nicholls thinks has a big future over fences next year
Champion Chase
ALTIOR was considered to be tough to beat, Paul conceded that he had hoped Politilogue would have given him a real race last time out, admitting that the only light was that Altior was poor in last years Arkle, for all he won. He expects POLITOLOGUE to be 2nd, isn't worried about MIN who we all felt is massively under-priced considering his form and runs this year have been poor.
Cross Country Chase
Wasn't discussed
Fred Winter
Of Pauls entries he's expecting ACT OF VALOUR to come out best of his and feels he's been nicely handicapped. He had run SAO last week to get him handicapped for the race but was disappointed that the handicapper refused to give him a mark. SAO remains a horse to track. I also spoke to him in private about a horse I've been following for some time called BIRDS OF PREY, he gave me a wry smile and said yeah he's decent, but he's taken his time to mature. He did however school well on Tuesday and may be out soon.
Champion Bumper
Again this race wasn't discussed but again I had a word with the owner of THE BIG BITE. He's a horse that has won both his bumper starts to date and after Noel Fehily rode him on debut he stated that the horse was "the best bumper horse he's ever ridden".. He won his next start with ease too. Now a decision hasn't been made as to whether he takes his chance in the race but he's 25/1 and with NRNB markets widely available he could prove a spot of value.
DAY 3
JLT Novices Chase
Obviously I was firmly in the Footpad camp NRNB.. Paul Nicholls was strongly of the opinion that MODUS was far too big of a price at 25/1, and expected him to run a big race.. We all felt that WILLOUGHBY COURT doesn't jump well enough.
Pertemps Final
Paul stated he needed CONNETABLE to win on the weekend to get a run in the race, clearly that didn't happen. For me, as long as the yard are in better form, LOUIS' VAC POUCH would be very hard to beat given his form, he seemed sold on my case for his chances.
Ryanair
Was a hard race to decipher because so many weren't running.. I felt if DOUVAN ran he'd win, Paul was of the opinion he wouldn't run. He thought WAITING PATIENTLY looks a fantastic horse but we were both of the opinion he may not run. UN DE SCEAUX was the only horse most definatly running and would have another brilliant chance should his rivals not show. Paul and Bryony were both expecting a better run this time round from FRODON, they thought depending on runners he'd have a good chance of a place but conceded it would be hard to win.
Stayers
It was of my opinion that if PENHILL ran he would have a great chance, if not my money would be on THE NEW ONE each way. Being out of Milan he's bred to improve for the step up in trip, Paul agreed. Paul Nicholls felt SAM SPINNER hadn't done a thing wrong this year and was the most likely winner.
Brown & Merribel Chase
One of two entries for MOVEWITHTHETIMES, they'll go to what they feel is the most winnable. BOUVEREUL is also coming back to himself and went close at the festival a year ago. He has a place squeak if he takes his place.
Mares Novice
Wasn't discussed
Kim Muir
One of two entries for BRAQUER D'OR, despite many jokes about the horse (the evenings host is the co owner) it is yet to be decided whether he will be running or not.
DAY 4
Triumph Hurdle
Not many opinions from Paul or Bryony on the race. I felt Apples Shakira would be very hard to beat, he wasn't as sold on her as I was and was concerned about her on faster ground. Since the evening Redicean has firmly put himself into the mix, for me its Apples race to lose.
County Hurdle
Wasn't Discussed
Albert Bartlett
Wasn't Discussed
Gold Cup
We were all of the opinion that MIGHT BITE is the most likely winner with nothing else coming into the race in form. The points were made that all of his rivals have too many question marks... Sizing John flopped last time, Our Duke cant jump well enough, Native River won a 3 runner race against a non stayer and a horse of Nicholls that wasn't fit, Coney Island flopped, Djakadam isn't good enough, Killughtagh Vic fell again, Definitely Red will find it all too quick and Minella Rocco isn't good enough also falling last time out. MIGHT BITE hasn't put a foot wrong and clearly has stamina in abundance.
Foxhunters Chase
WONDERFUL CHARM was Pauls NAP of the meeting. Himself and Bryony both felt that the horse had the most class in the race and with a clear round was the one they all had to beat. I wasn't going to disagree...
The Johnny Henderson and Martin Pipe weren't Discussed...
I was also passed on a horse for your trackers to follow for the future and one that may be a shade under the radar right now. The horse is INTERCONNECTED, he won a point to point at Larkhill last Sunday with total ease and looks like a good horse for the future when he takes to rules racing...
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jonthehammer
1:40 Tue Mar 6
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Mine from last night
Haydock Preview Evening – 5th March
Panel
Gareth Leonard (MC for the Night)
Warren Greateaux
Andy Gibson
Mark Chapman
Brian Hughes Did not turn up.
Day 1
Supreme Novices
MC: Getabird 11/8, probably bigger on day. Kalashnikov has form in the book but horses that win Betfair Hurdle generally done nothing here.
WG: Has Western Ryder but main intention but at moment is Ballymore bound but will switch here if it comes up soft. Bit disappointed with him this year but does have some form at Cheltenham. Richard Johnson seems him as a Stayer and worthy EW if he does go here at 33/1. Fan of Kalashnikov.
AG: Getabird, has taken same route as previous Mullins hot pots in this but not in same league as Douvan, Vautour etc. and too short. Possibly ground dependant and should be 5/2 so would oppose at 11/8. Likes Kalashnikov on better ground. Back Claimantakinforgan ante post. Lost in Translation may go better and Scarlet Dragon was an eye-catcher in 2nd part of his last race but both could go Ballymore. Kalashnikov Rock solid for placepot.
MC: Scarlet Dragon has been nibbled at. Also Slate House EW could go well.
Arkle
AG: Footpad well supported early doors like an Altior or Douvan in previous years for this but probably too short now as they were good things at the time. Petit Mouchoir wasn’t as fluent LTO as Footpad.
St Calvados, not sure on whether he will go on the course or like the ground. There has been a difference of option between the trainer, jockey and work rider.
North Hill Harvey has EW chance without favourites market. Will pick up the pieces.
WG: Footpad been impressive. PM had interrupted preparation LTO and may improve.
Fan of St Calvados, jumps well. NHH could run into a place and Nicholls says he is 10lb better for Cheltenham. Would probably play PM
MC: would be with PM. Brain Power better right handed
Champion Hurdle.
MC: BD looks a banker but last back to back winner in this was 2005. Melon not good Enough. Yorkhill jumping an issue. Wicklow Brave for EW money.
WG: can’t see BD being beat. MTOY will be second.
Chat about what ground will be. WG thinks soft, AG thinks G/S.
AG: doesn’t like short priced favourites and wound rather Faugheen at 7/4 WO BD. MTOY EW chance and has backed Chitbello WO BD
GL: likes Wicklow Brave EW
GL mentioned that WG had Keeper Hill in the 4 miler and is available at around 14/1 although he did fall LTO. WH said he jumped well until the fall.
Mares Hurdle
WG: Has not decided if La Bague Au Roi goes here and is currently in favour 60/40 that she will go here. More to come from her and has run well on heavy and soft ground.
AG: La Bague Au Roi was 6/1 without Apple’s Jade for this and sees that as a great EW bet.
Other races on Day 1.
Ultima
AG: Has backed Singlefarmpayment weeks ago and fancies his chances although will need luck in running with his hold up style. Coo Star Sivola is very well handicapped but always seems to run far too wide.
National Hunt Chase (4 Miler)
AG: No Comment has had a very interesting campaign.
MC: Money has come for No Comment and also Elegant Escape but unsure if he goes here.
Close Brothers
De Plotting Shed well fancied and backed heavily but the panel seemed to know that Any Second Now has been laid out for this.
MC: Money definitely has come for De Plotting Shed. MC also says that no favourite has won a handicap at the Festival for 4 years.
Day 2
Ballymore
AG: Will oppose Samcro. Willie Mullins likes Next Destination but unsure if he goes here.
MC: Feels Samcro must be taken on.
WG: Felt On the Blind Side has been overlooked in this.
GL: Heard OTBS has had sore shins but WG thought he banged a joint.
RSA
MC: Feels Monalee should go here but probably will go JLT.
WG: This is gruelling race and unsure which horses will run here.
AG: Thinks Presenting Percy should go to the 4 miler but probably will run here and have a good chance. Likes Black Corton.
QMCC
WG: Thinks Altior too good and will win impressively. Says he is probably the most talented horse in training. GL agrees.
GL: Actually likes Min.
MC: Altior will win.
AG: Politilogue is now too long in the W/O Altior market and probably should be backed.
Other races on Day 2.
Cross Country
MC: Not sure why The Last Samurai is going here and likes Tiger Roll.
Fred Winter
MC: Act of Valour well backed. Some money taken for Nicholl’s Oistrakh Le Noir.
WG: Likes Espirit de Samoza here.
Champion Bumper
WG: Knows Mullins likes Hollowgraphic and Acey Milan has probably the best for of the British horses.
Brian Hughes has text AG to say he likes Cloudy Dream in the Ryanair, Look my Way in the Fred Winter, Barney Dwan in the Close Bros and his old favourite Mount Mews EW in the JLT.
Day 3
JLT
AG: Again difficult to see who runs here. If Monalee ran here he would have a great chance. Invitation Only seems to be favourite by default. Very open race with no superstar. Feels Tizzard’s will improve at the festival. Also says Bigmatre is a big prize. Terrefort confirmed here and soft ground would be a plus.
WG: Benetar beat his horse Keeper Hill on bad ground, wasn’t that impressive though but maybe a solid EW. Big fan of Terrefort and has a good chance in an open race. Finian’s Oscar would be a no no. Modus is timid horse (a soft f*cker as Nicholls says)
MC: Terrefort is unexposed and would be his choice.
Ryanair
AG: Waiting Patiently won’t run and BH has confirmed this. Really strong on Top Notch EW and is one of his biggest bets so far. Will also cover by backing Balko Des Flos and Cue Card as win only bets. Probably would back and trade Cloudy Dream in running. Frodon could spoil the party.
MC: UDS is a bit more restrained now than the tear-*rse he used to be. This race is as far as he wants tho,
AG: Expects Cue Card to be ridden aggressively.
WG: Very open race and if you can get 12s on Cue Card he is a good EW bet.
Stayers
WG: 6 or 7 could win this and very open. La Bague Au Roi would get the Mares allowance and would have a good chance if he sends her here. Says she is stronger this year and won 3m on heavy so distance not an issue. Wishes Mares was on the new course on the Thursday then his decision would be made. Also thinks Yanworth could be a big player.
AG: Agrees with WG that 6 or 7 could win it and La Bague Au Roi is of interest. Sam Spinner has the best form and if Mullins trained would be 7/4 so he is overpriced. Interesting market move on Supasundae after this last win beating Faugheen over a different trip, will he stay?
Yanworth will trade bigger in running. Penhill isn’t without a chance if fit.
L’Ami Serge will be favourite heading down the hill but doesn’t find off the bridle.
MC: Agrees that Sam Spinner should be shorter. Penhill is of interest but hasn’t been backed by the owner yet which is normally a sign. Would back L’Ami Serge EW.
Other races on Day 3
Pertemps
WG: Runs Boite but took a heavy fall LTO.
MC: Took money on Thomas Campbell & Who Dares Wins.
AG: Likes Who Dares Wins.
A man from the northern Racing Club says that Matt Woolston, head man at the jockey club, informed him that Glenloe only ran at Market Rasen last time to get a handicap mark for this race. Is this a sign?
Kim Muir
WG: Says Missed Approach will be saddled by Noel McPartland (but I cant find an entry for him).
MC: Mall Dini well backed for this but he always seems well backed at the festival.
Day 4
Triumph Hurdle
GL: Likes Redicean
MC: Thought Apple’s Shakira would be short priced favourite but now Redicean has entered the fray and now thinks Redicean will go off jolly on the day.
WG: Likes Redicean, very impressive so far and Alan King is good with juvenile hurdlers. Also likes We Have A Dream and won LTO even though wasn’t at this sharpest.
AG: Redicean impressive and likes the fact he is good from 2 out until the line although LTO he was impressive throughout the whole race. Stormy Ireland is also of interest and maybe a back to lay in running.
Albert Bartlett
MC: Popular betting race and there could be a turn up. Santini backed well by connections.
WG: Runs Mulcahys Hill who has graded form and has a squeak. Thinks Next Destination would win this if he runs.
AG: Likes Warren’s horse EW.
Gold Cup
AG: 7 or 8 have a chance here. Our Duke or Killultagh Vic EW chances. Sizing John, Might Bite and Native River all have obvious chances and rightly first 3 in the market. SJ is the one who has more to prove. Native River has had the perfect prep though. Potential to lay Might Bite in running.
MC: Fan of Native River. Road to Respect has similar to profile as SJ last year. Would just pick Road to Respect over Native River though.
WG: Might Bite will run his race and looks more straightforward this year. Was good in the King George. Also likes Native River, worried about the bounce factor though but if he runs to his form last year will be right up there. Edwulf will run conservatively and staying on for a place.
AG: Thinks Definitely Red is a good solid chaser but runs to about 150 bar one time. Total Recall probably out for a spin before an Irish Grand National effort. Minella Rocco and Djakadam massive prices.
GL: Might Bite.
Other Races on Day 4.
County Hurdle
AG: Old favourite A Hare Breath EW. Wants Charli Parcs to go here as would back him but looking like he will go Champion Hurdle which is a shame.
Foxhunters
WG: Says Paul Nicholls likes Wonderful Charm.
Grand Annual
MC: Money for Vaniteaux,
AG: Likes Vaniteaux but only negative he’s not the bravest in a finish.
WG: Also likes Vaniteaux.
NAPS
MC: Tiger Roll (X Country)
WG: Any Second Now (Close Brothers)
AG: A Hare Breath (County)
GL: Ordinary World (Grand Annual) – Ran well behind Min.
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Grumpster
12:34 Tue Mar 6
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Been well out of the race game over the past few months and barely even know any of the runners (or non runners), so had a huge watch up of random races last night.
Still haven't got a clue except for one thing, what a fucking jockey that James Bowen is for 16 years of age.
Reckon I'll be backing a few of his regardless.
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Northern Sold
12:15 Tue Mar 6
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Nope but got my Ante posts
Supreme - kalashanikov
Ultima - Coo Star Sivola
RSA - Black Corton
Ryanair - Un de Sceaux
Stayers - New One (e/w)
County H - Hunter's Call
Albert B - Santini
Gold Cup - Native River
Also got a Footpad/B du Air/Samcro treble going on...
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Flannel
9:56 Tue Mar 6
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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It's a quiet thread this year - anyone got anymore to put up?
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Flannel
2:00 Sun Mar 4
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Gents
B365 are going 14/1 Samcro for supreme novice hurdle and NRNB
Stand out price
I reckon if the ground comes up heavy they will drop it in trip to the supreme.
So likely to not run but as it is NRNB you are just lending it for a week .
Get on boys !!!
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jonthehammer
1:21 Fri Mar 2
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Morky 9:57 Fri Mar 2
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
Its ok mate
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Morky
9:57 Fri Mar 2
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Ignore my last post, I thought Cause of Causes was trained by EB not Elliott.
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Morky
7:41 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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JTH - I'm a bit confused the di EB say Cause of Causes was a stone better than his other horses and say Josies Orders was his best horse?
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jonthehammer
4:42 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Cheers fella
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Billy Go Wings
4:37 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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The Brave Nelson Pub
Brentwood
Organised privately via a Racing Syndicate so wouldn’t have been advertised.
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jonthehammer
4:18 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Billy
Where was that held mate?
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jonthehammer
4:17 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Larry Tomkins, Bar Cork City (Alternative view with additions)
Was also at Larry Tompkins last night. I think the porge covered it quite well but I'll add the following.
Supreme
TM: Not worried about Getabird running out in P2P said buck house was the bravest horse he ever sat on and he did the same thing in a bumper at Listowel, he said its much more likely something spooked the horse. Said there wasn't much competition in this for the bird.
Arkle
CS: Said he saw Saint Calvados run in France and he'd be worried that form is all on flat tracks and bad ground.
4 Miler
CS: No Comment has loads of class, jumped well at Sandown and definitely has an each way chance.
Ballymore
EB: Take a good look at Samcro because like Ted Walsh said he's like are rare.
TM: Samcro not in the league of Golden Cygnet or Dunguib for him yet.
QMCC
CS: Doesn't think Nicky would have ran Altior if it wouldn't have brought him on.
MT: Extremely bullish about Douvan. Said if Ruby rides you can take it hes well and if hes well he wins. Willie/Ruby are nervous but he did a sparkling piece of work a few days ago, the problem is he has to do it another 2 or 3 times before he goes.
RSA
EB: Noel Fehily was raving about Monalee after Leopardstown.
Cross Country
EB: JO best of his, will stay best.
Bumper
TM: Said he can’t get any definite answer out of the lads in Willie's who's the best and usually when that happens he doesn't win it or you have something like Briar Hill win at 25/1 or like the year Charlie won at 33/1 for Willie.
Ryanair
Colm said back UDS at 2/1 but if he gets to 6/4 you've probably missed your chance and value gone. Was looking for odds without Waiting Patiently but also mentioned Balko Des Flos as a worry. Said doesn't know if Bachasson goes gold cup, but if he doesn't keep an eye on him for Galway plate, since sold Chateau Conti.
TM: Said he feels Willie has this race covered and doesn't expect him to run anything else in it.
Mares Novice
TM: Laurina doing everything right but hasn't heard anyone say she’s in league of Limini. Weakest race of the festival.
JLT
TM: Munir was over recently and was raving about Terrefort, Nicky’s best chance outside of big 3.
Foxhunters
EB: Said he thinks this comes a year too soon for Burning Ambition, there was 4 horses in the last race will be 24 the next day.
Other
TM: Said if Willie is sending horses to handicaps with high weights, he is not sending them for nothing, especially this year as he will need everything he can to win trainers champ in Ireland so won't be wasting anything.
CS: The Byrnes horse was Off You Go in the County, also mentioned Out Of the Loop in Coral Cup and Don't Touch It in Grand Annual
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jonthehammer
4:17 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Larry Tomkins, Bar Cork City
Sorry folks that this years into up to last year’s but a combination of ManFlu and ‘The Beast From The East' made it a bit of a stretch to make it to Larry’s tonight. But we weren’t dis-appointed AGAIN this year.
The panel tonight were Tony Mullins (TM), Enda Bolger (EB) and Charlie Swan (CS) with the excellent MC Joe Seward and special guest from Tusail O’Chonaill the Un De Sceaux owner.
Supreme Novices
TM: Fancies Getabird thinks Kalashnikov got an exceptional ride last time out
CS: Likes Kalashnikov and refers to Make A Stand who won like he did and won a Champion hurdle.
EB: A big fan of Getabird
Arkle
TM : Prefers Petit Mouchoir, says Willie is aiming Footpad at the Gold Cup and this is just a stepping stone
CS : Likes Brain Power each-way ,thinks he’d be a Paul Carberry type of ride
EB : Loves the grey horse - Petit Mouchoir
Champion Hurdle
CS: Buveur Dair for him, Faugheen not at its best
TM : After finishing second to Supasundae Tony was happy enough but coming off the track, i.e. the immediate response from Willie was that he’d have to find a bit.
EB: Nothing beats Buveur Dair
Mares Hurdle
Apples Jade could run in a Champion hurdle, penalty kick for the whole panel
NH Chase
Surprise they took this one in , interesting
TM & EB love fest for Mall Dini
CS : Watch out for Shattered Love that gets all the allowances
Ballymore
No love for Gigginstown hard to judge
TM: Needs to see more from Samcro
EB: Bombproof Samcro
CS: Samcro banker
Tony Mullins then went off on one of his many tangents whereby he said that Ruby said that Next Destination beats them all
Champion Chase
TM: Douvan the best horse in training at the moment, if it shows up wins by a fence
CS : Likes the way Min has learned to settle
EB : Thinks a negative for Min re the hill
RSA
CS: Presenting Percy won’t be beat
EB: Hard race for Presenting Percy last time out. Noel Fehily loves Monalee
TM: Likes Monalee, says Presenting Percy had a hard race last time out.
Cross Country
EB: All his horses are a stone behind Cause Of Cause
Bumper
CS: Likes a horse related to Denman called Didyouleavemeouttoo
TM : No noise from Willes yard … Interesting
Ryanair Chase
TM: Un De Sceaux best horse he’s seen in 30 years - hyperbole alert!!
Colm O’Connell : No bet if under 6/4, loves the horse but gives a mention to Balko De Flos (Man owes us nothing !!!!!)
On a side note thinks his other horse Bacchasson goes for either the Melling Chase or the Galway Plate
EB: Un De Sceaux is a phenomenon that’s not finished yet
CS : Un De Sceaux as long as the ground is in its favour.
Albert Bartlett
No-one had an opinion on this just how horrible it was for Bryan Cooper to get the public dressing down from Michael O’Leary calling him an imbecile after last years race where he unseated on Death Duty!!!!
Stayers Hurdle
CS: Likes Sam Spinner and keep an eye out for Unowhatimeanharry
EB: Very fond of Supasundae
TM: Has had a change of heart from last year re Yanworth. but has had Penhill at home and he’s flying
Mares Novice Hurdle
No-one that keen
CS likes Dame de Compagnie each-way
JLT
TM: Terrefort
EB: Invitation Only
CS: Likes Modus if the ground dries up
Triumph Hurdle
CS: Nicky likes Apples Shakira but also likes Redicean
TM: Apples Shakira
EB: Likes Redicean
Albert Bartlett
TM: Likes Duc De Genièvres as a horse that has stamina!!
Gold Cup
CS: Total Recall and Might Bite
EB: Loves Edwulf also Native River has been laid out for it
TM: Killultagh Vic is an improver / Total Recall has a smell of Aintree about him
Foxhunters
EB: Back the Nicholls hot-pot!!!!!!!! Interesting
Naps and lays
TM: Naps Un De Sceaux - Lays Samcro
EB: Naps Un De Sceaux - Lays Might Bite
CS: Naps Samcro - Lays Footpad
Talked about a Charles Byrnes horse in a handicap but gave no name
Charity Bets
CS €100w Apples Shakira
TM €50ew Next Destination (Baltimore)
EB €50ew Josie Orders
Host Larry Tomkins had €100 on Wonderful Charm!!
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jonthehammer
4:17 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Cheltenham on the Rock (COTR) Snippets
COTR Handicap Bet of the Week
Pricewise: Hunters Call - County Hurdle
Kealy: Ivanovich Gorbatov - County Hurdle
Jennings - Don’t Touch It - Grand Annual
COTR NAP of the Week
Pricewise: Hunters Call - Any Race
Kealy: Mr Whittaker - Brown Plate
Jennings - Balko Des Flos - Ryanair
Supreme
Supreme starts us off. All shading Mengli Khan, and like Kalashnikov a lot. Concerns over Getabird given price and ground. DJ likes Sharjah and Paloma Blue at a price
Arkle
Opposition to Arkle favourite Footpad, ‘worst price at festival.’ PK likes the next three in, focussed on Sceau Royal ew. DJ ❤️ Brian Power, much to consternation of panel. Pricewise puts up Saint Calvados based on Warwick run.
Champion Hurdle
All agree Buveur D’Air wins the CH. Wicklow Brave and Mick Jazz put up W/O Fav. MTOY also a fancy without.
Mares Hurdle
In the Mares, Let’s Dance given to us as dirty EW. BDD the selection of Pricewise at the price.
Others Day 1
Burning Ambition the NAP of the week for Day One guest from @bet365’s Pat Cooney. #ScouseOnTheSofa makes his first appearance, naps Rather Be in the Close Bros.
To wrap up Tuesday, Pricewise likes Mias Storm and Coo Star Sivola for the Ultima. PK very confident on CSS also, then suggests Barney Dwan the play in the novice chase. DJ likes Dounikos for the 4 miler, De Plotting Shed in the novice chase.
Ballymore
On to Day 2 now. Opposition to Samcro in the Ballymore, given the price from PK and Pricewise. DJ believes the beast to be a special animal, sure it wins, deserving of current price. Vision Des Flos suggested as a big price chance.
Coral Cup
Paul Kealy likes Diese Des Bieffes in whatever he ends up in, be it Coral Cup or Martin Pipe. Segal sure Hunters Call wins his race.
RSA
In the RSA, Pricewise shades Black Corton and Monalee (goes to JLT allegedly). Shattered Love and Mia’s Storm at the prices for Segal. DJ likes the fav once more, also Ballyoptic at a price.
Champion Chase
Panel can’t get away from Altior for the QMCC. That was easy.
Cross Country
Cause of Causes.
Fred Winter
DJ likes Oxford Blue in the Fred Winter @33/1.
Champion Bumper
Kealy likes Rhinestone to overturn Blackbow form, also puts word in for Hollowgraphic, who has support from Jennings
JLT
Day 3 up now. PK suggests Finian’s Oscar is the bet in the JLT despite worries. Pricewise puts up Modus and Monalee NRMB. DJ on Modus also.
Ryanair
PK loves Waiting Patiently for the Ryanair, and agrees with Pricewise that Balko Des Flos is a fair bet. Jennings also a Balko Des Flos, goes off 9/2 in his mind.
Stayers Hurdle
The #ScouseOnTheSofa woofs as DJ puts up L’Ami Serge. PK likes Apples Jade, and Segal has info that Penhill could be the steamer of the festival.
Browns Advisory
Tully East in the Brown Plate for DJ. PK likes Mr Whittaker in the Brown Plate, whilst Pricewise has Sort It Out in the Pertemps.
Mares Novices
Thursday closes with David Jennings napping Larina as shortest price SP of the festival.
Albert Bartlett
Santini is NAPed by #ScouseOnTheSofa and Pricewise couldn’t agree more. PK gives us the stat that most exposed horse wins, so lands on big priced Callet Mad.
Gold Cup
There is shock to see @WilliamHill have gone 9/2 about Might Bite. Kealy also likes Lexus winner Road to Respect. Pricewise big on Our Duke, and likes 50/1 shot Anibale Fly. DJ compares RTR to Denman, but questions ground.
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jonthehammer
4:16 Thu Mar 1
Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights
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Market Harborough – 27th February
Panel is Tom Messenger, Tim Peters, Andrew Mount and Paul Jones
Supreme
Kalashnikov or Paloma Blue in the 1st
Arkle
Sceau Royal EW, lay St Calvados
Ultima
Run off the pace for place money Ultima - Coo Star Sivola
Champion Hurdle
Rumour of headgear for Faugheen. Consider MTOY EW from Andrew
Chitbello will go, but probably outclassed.
NH Chase (4 Miler)
Fagan, Elliot plot.
Close Bros
Cobra De Mai following wind op. But has got to get in the race. Rather Be needs considering.
Ballymore
Watching race prob. Vision De Flos EW makes appeal.
Coral Cup
Avoid older horses Coral cup. Look at a horse thats been off for more than a month. Long house hall given a positive but needs to be fresh, Elliot throwing everything at it.
RSA
Monalee preferred over Presenting Percy. Ballyoptic may outrun odds.
Queen Mother
Altior. Douvan no show.
Forest Bihan EW. Against Politilogue.
Cross Country
Bless the wings EW
Fred Winter
Look at bigger priced horses like Esprit De Somoza
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